Risk of hot summer in UK is more than twice normal figure, forecasters warn

Temperatures have soared above 30C for the first time this year – and meteorologists forecast the chance of Britain experiencing a hot summer is now 45% – 2.3 times the normal figure.

The warning leaves the nation braced for a possible repeat of last year’s record-breaking heatwave which triggered wildfires, disrupted rail transport, closed schools, led to thousands of premature deaths and saw temperatures break the 40C record in the UK for the first time.

At this rate, the world will soon have heated by more than 1.5C since pre-industrial levels, a temperature that was supposed to be the upper acceptable limit for global warming. In fact, the world could heat by almost 3C by the end of the century, triggering the melting of ice caps, the death of coral reefs and rising ocean levels.

For its part, Britain will experience weather patterns that will become increasingly grim, a point stressed by a study published last week by an international team led by Bath University researchers. It predicts that peak summer temperatures of 41C and weekly averages of 28C will be normal in large parts of southern England towards the end of the century. These figures compare with maximum peaks of 31C and averages of 20C that occurred in the 1970s.